Gold futures hit record high

Gold futures hit a record high of Rs 31,029 per 10 grams on Thursday at the MCX as investors shifted funds to the yellow metal on global cues and a weakened dollar. December 2012 gold futures touched high of Rs 31029 after opening at Rs 30,735 today. It is currently trading higher by 1% at Rs 30,992. Meanwhile, December 2012 silver futures witnessed a high of Rs 58,628 per KG after opening at Rs 57,400. It is currently trading higher by 2.5% to Rs 58,565. (12.15 pm)

''Rising expectations for further stimulus measures and expansionary policies by central banks of major economies has lifted up gold prices to trade above Rs 30,000 in the current days. Measures implemented by the EU to tackle with the Eurozone debt situation also helped to boostinvestors' confidence and hence supported the prices of precious metals. Mounting speculations that the Federal Reserve needs to introduce an additional round of stimulus also known as Quantitative'Easing (QE)' to support the faltering economy and if this happens then it will not only boost the commodity market but also lead to sharp rise in equities too,'' 

MCX Gold Tips, Silver Updates, Crude Tips For Today-22 August 2012

The COMDEX opened negative after a rise of 0.92% on Tuesday. It is currently trading higher by 4.49 points, or 0.12%, at 3,841.31 at 10.01 a.m. after opening at 3,835.91
Other index  like MCXMETAL is trading upward  by 3.30 points, or 0.07%, at 4,975.03 after opening at 4,974.35. MCXAGRI is trading up 27.06 points, or 0.97%, at 2,821.75 after opening at 2,809.40. Meanwhile MCXENERGY is trading down by 5.16 points, or 0.14%, at 3,601.50 after opening at 3,604.28.

Gainers at the MCX were COTTON CAKE AKOLA - August contract, (3.01%) with open interest of 5, Cardamom - July contract, (1.64%) with open interest of 108, Wheat - September contract, (1.38%) with openinterest of 13, COPPER1KG - August contract, (0.74%) with openinterest of 22,010, and Wheat - August contract, (0.68%) with openinterest of 450.

Laggards at the MCX are POTATOTRWR - September contract, (3.89%)with open interest of 5, POTATOTRWR - August contract, (2.86%) with open interest of 108, POTATOTRWR - July contract, (2.47%) with openinterest of 13, Nickel - September contract, (2.33%) with open interest of 22,010, and Cardamom - October contract, (2.22%) with open interest of 450.

Weekly commodity outlook

Bullions

Gold prices in India are expected to remain on firm footing as weak local currency Rupee is supporting the prices. Investors are not taking big positions in COMEX as Fed speech in last week of August at Jackson Hole will be keenly watched to get further hint about stimulus known as QE3. This week FOMC minutes on Wednesday will also affect precious metals. Meanwhile the physical demand has seen a decline whereas the ETF demand is slowing increasing. According to the World Gold Council ``Global gold demand in the second quarter fell by 7% from the same period a year ago to 990 metric tons, largely as a result of declines in the world`s two largest consuming nations of China and India``. However, gold investment picked up in Europe as investors there sought a safe harbor from the sovereign debt crisis. Further, central banks remained significant buyers. Weaker demand from the jewellery investment and technology, sectors was offset to some extent by a surge in buying by the official sector.

Gold can trade in a range of 29,700-30,500 in MCX while COMEX gold can trade in a range of USD 1,590-,1650 in near term. Silver can trade in a range of 52,500-55,000 in MCX and USD 27.50-29 in COMEX. Moreover the movement of local currency rupee will also be watched by the investors which can move in a range of 55.4-57.5. The dollar index movement will be very crucial for bullions as it can trade in a range of 82-83.2 in near term.

Energy

Crude oil future can continue its upside momentum as Iran tensions and hurricane concerns are keeping the prices buoyant. Crude oil and products prices have rallied in recent days on signs of tightening supplies, caused in part by operating snags at several refineries. Crude oil can trade in a range of 5,200-5,420 in MCX and USD 93-98 in NYMEX. The spread between WTI and sweet crude has narrowed down from nearly 22 to 19 recently. In recent weeks, North Sea Brent remained at least USD 20 a barrel more expensive than West Texas Intermediate traded in New York as the gap almost doubled since June 20. The growing difference underscores how falling output from the North Sea`s aging oilfields and U.S. led sanctions on Iranian crude sales are stoking Brent while a production boom adds to a glut of blocked-in US supplies, limiting WTI gains. The White House is considering a plan to potentially release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Natural gas can remain on mixed path as prices can trade in a range of 145-163 in MCX.Natural gas prices are focusing on forecasts of milder temperatures in the days ahead and on the broader supply picture as the end of the summer approaches. The summer is one of the most important periods of the year for natural-gas use, as consumers turn to gas fired electricity to cool their homes. The overall amount of natural gas in storage currently is about 12.5% above the five year average for this time of year.

Metals

The selling pressure in the base metals  complex may witness some pause in its momentum as short covering  at current levels due to decline in greenback and hope of stimulus from China and US can support the prices. Shortage of scrap in copper is capping the downside in Red metal. Scrap supply has become the ``savior`` of the copper market for the past two years, bridging the gap between growing metal demand and stagnant mine supply. Chilean production is starting to pick up after a shaky start to the year, with a rise of 2.5% in the first half of 2012 in the world`s largest copper-mining country. Chinese production is running higher than expected, growing at 20% year-over-year.Copper prices  can trade in a range of 410-425 in near term while lead can trade in a range of 102-106. Recently China showed that lead acid battery production rose by 45% year-over-year in July alone and has risen 25% year-to-date. Nickel prices are expected to take support near 850 in MCX. Aluminium prices may see some short covering and can test 104 in near term. Oversupply concerns in Zinc can keep its prices under pressure but short covering at current levels cannot be denied. Zinc premiums in Asia (excluding China) had jumped to USD 90-USD 100 from USD 40 two weeks ago as a lot of metal in the region was tied up in financing deals or behind long queues at warehouses. Recent China government comments stirred hopes of more policy action to stimulate the economy.

oil rises to near USD 94 a barrel

Oil prices rose above USD 94 a barrel Wednesday in international markets.

Benchmark oil rose 21 cents to USD 93.64 a barrelWednesday in New York. Brent crude, which is used to price international varieties of oil, rose USD 1.06 to USD 115.09 per barrel in London.

Heating oil rose 3 cents to USD 3.06 per gallen. Gasoline increased 6 cents to USD 3.06 per gallon. Natural gas fell 8cents to USD 2.76 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Weekly commodity market outlook

Gold inched up on weekly basis as U.S. report on Friday slashed the forecast for the corn crop and raising worries about higher food prices, boosting the precious metal`s allure as an inflation hedge. Weak start to monsoon in India and rise in prices of precious metals caused concern over India Gold demand. However bullion market in India usually picks up in August with the beginning of festivals which continue till November. Technically Gold is consolidation on the charts. In the coming week 30,400 and 30,700 will act as a major resistance and 29,700 and 29,350 will act as a major support in MCX Gold. For this week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if Gold sustains above 30,000 then above 30,100 it can test the level of 30,300/ 30,500.Technically Silver is still consolidating on the charts. For this week, 55,200 and 56,800 are the major resistance whereas 52,600 and 51,000 are major supports in MCX Silver. Traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if Silver sustains above the level of 54,000 then above 54400 Silver can test the level of 55,200/ 56,000

Copper prices slipped last week after weak Chinese trade numbers marked another week of gloomy data and spurring fears about a worse than expected economic slowdown in the world`s top metals consumer. Technically Copper is looking weak on the charts. For this week, 409 and 401 will act as major support level and 420 and 426 will act as major resistance in MCX Copper. One should go for sell on higher level strategy in MCX Copper, if it sustains below the level of 413 then it can test the level of 409/ 405.

Crude Oil dipped a bit last week as China, the world`s second-largest user of oil released its monthly economic data. According to data China oil demand in July is at 9.15 mln bpd, at second-lowest level this year. Technically Crude Oil is looking bearish on the chart. For this  week 5,040 and 4,850 will act as major supports and 5,225 and 5,400 will act as major resistance in MCX Crude Oil. For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Crude sustains below the level of 5,100 then below 5,040 it can test the level of 4,950/ 4,850.

Commodity market open positive

The Multi Commodity Exchange  (MCX), COMDEX opened positive after a rise of 3.38 points, or 0.09% on Saturday. It is currently trading higher by 6.80 points, or 0.18%, at 3,763.69 at 10.10 a.m. after opening at 3,759.02.

Other index like MCXMETAL is trading upward by 7.78 points, or 0.16%, at 4,913.10 after opening at 4,910.85. MCXAGRI istrading down by 12.67 points, or 0.46%, at 2,762.70 afteropening at 2,763.07. Meanwhile MCXENERGY is trading up 16.23 points, or 0.47%, at 3,491.14 after opening at 3,491.56.

Fortune Commodities News Letter

commodity

Bullion:  Domestic gold futures were up factoring overnight gains  in the parent contract on COMEX. Gold futures on COMEX in Asian electronic trade extended overnight gains as traders continued buying the commodity at every dip in prices on hopes of monetary stimulus or easing in the US or European nations.

Energy: Domestic crude oil futures were trading higher taking cues from the benchmark contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Global crude oil futures gained following release of encouraging US jobless claims data and more-than-expected drop in the US crude oil stocks. Natural-gas futures surge after a smaller-than-expected addition to US stockpiles, suggesting demand last week was stronger

than anticipated.

Metals: Base metals on MCX were mixed tracking the trend on London Metal Exchange but hopes that the Chinese government may announce some measures to boost economy supported the underlying prices. Trade in base metal contracts on LME was choppy,  as a firm dollar against the euro put pressure on prices while Copper and lead were up, while nickel, zinc and aluminum were down.

Oil settles above USD 93 a barrel

Oil prices rose above USD 93 a barrel Thursday in international markets

Benchmark oil rose 1 cent to USD 93.36 a barrel in New York. Brent crude oil which is used to price

international varieties of oil, gained USD 1.08 to USD 113.22 a barrel in London.

Natural gas prices rose after a government report showed a smaller than expected increase in U.S. inventories.

Futures rose 1.2 cents to USD 2.945 per 1,000 cubic feet, although they had gained more than 10 cents earlier.

Heating oil increased 2.91 cents to USD 3.045 per gallon Gasoline gained 2 cents to USD 3.00 per gallon.